by A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of British Columbia (UBC) has revealed that climate change could lead to a significant decrease in the availability of nutrients from seafood in low-income countries. According to the study, under a high carbon emissions and low mitigation scenario, these countries could experience a decline of up to 30% in seafood nutrients by the end of the century. However, if global warming is limited to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, this decline could be reduced to approximately 10%.
To arrive at these projections, the researchers analyzed historical data on fisheries and seafood farming, as well as predictive climate models. They focused on four key nutrients—calcium, iron, protein, and omega-3 fatty acids—which are abundant in seafood and crucial for human health. The study found that the availability of these nutrients reached its peak in the 1990s but has stagnated since then, despite the increase in seafood farming and invertebrate fishing.
Looking ahead, the researchers projected a decrease in the availability of all four nutrients from seafood catches. Calcium is expected to be the most affected, with a predicted decline of around 15% to 40% by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. Omega-3 fatty acids are also expected to decrease by approximately 5% to 25%. These declines are mainly driven by the decreasing availability of pelagic fish, which are rich in calcium.
The researchers also noted that while seafood farming is expected to contribute more nutrients in the future, it will not be able to offset the loss from fisheries. Additionally, climate change poses a significant threat to seafood farming, further exacerbating the nutritional deficit. The study emphasized the importance of reducing global warming to mitigate these risks and ensure the availability of nutrients from seafood.
The projections showed that low-income countries in tropical regions, such as Indonesia, the Solomon Islands, and Sierra Leone, would experience a steep decline in seafood-sourced nutrient availability by the end of the century, compared to higher-income countries in non-tropical regions such as Canada, the U.S., and the U.K.
In order to increase nutrient availability from seafood, the researchers suggested retaining more nutritious fish for local consumption and reducing food waste in fisheries production and consumption by utilizing all parts of a fish. They stressed the need for future seafood supply development to prioritize the nutritional security of vulnerable groups, rather than solely focusing on economic benefits.
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1. Source: Coherent Market Insights, Public sources, Desk research
2. We have leveraged AI tools to mine information and compile it
